2006 Los Alamos Flu Pandemic Supercomputer Model Estimates Outbreak

In 2006 the Los Alamos National Laboratory created a supercomputer model that estimated how a pandemic flu virus similar to the swine flu might turn out. This computer model estimated that a break out this kind would most likely last up 4-6 months with it peaking in 2-3 months and then slowly dying off.

The model that was created accounted for a significant number of factors for how the swine flu virus could spread including air travel. Unfortunately with our society being so mobile these days results showed that closing borders and limiting air travel would help very minimally in reducing the spread of the swine flu.

The test also considered if some sort of thermal scanning of people would help determine who was infected so they could be quarantined but this also proved not to help all that much. The problem here is that once infected with a swine flu type virus people do not show symptoms for roughly 24 hours which means that they could have already passed the virus to other individuals before they even know they have it. In other situations people don’t show any symptoms so thermal heating scanning would never help with them.

The only things that the model showed to be conclusive in helping limited the pandemic spread of a swine flu like outbreak were the use of anti-viral drugs (such as Tamiflu in this case), and limiting contact between people. One of the best ways that they determined to stop a virus of the swine kind of virus was through the closing of schools. Wearing face masks and practicing general hygiene habits also showed to help reduce the spread of influenza

Health official world worldwide are now thinking that the swine flu outbreak will be able to be controlled with antiviral meds in the parts of the world that are entering the summer months but it will be tougher to control in countries that are just entering the “flu season”.